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As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit
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TOPIC: As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit
#181700
As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
I've always said - Brexit simply cannot happen due to the border issue. Sorry - there can only be no border between UK and Ireland if there is no border between UK and rest of the EU - fail. It is impossible and stupid and always was.
 
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#181701
Barney

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
A major obstacle, to most Brexit related matters - including the border - is the Democratic Unionist Party.

The DUP's 10 Westminster MPs support Ms May's government and have a formal agreement with it - which, if cancelled/withdrawn from, would bring down the government.

Ms May was forced into this agreement (to stay in power), and will regret having her hands tied by a small local party - with a very limited agenda.

Sadly, this agenda only concerns the DUP's own vision for Northern Ireland - which is at variance with the two main parties, on virtually every matter.


Economically, NI is a basket case with little industry and 24% corporation tax - compared to half that in the adjacent Republic

Without a parliament for c20 months, the province is rudderless - and run from Westminster.

In addition - NI costs the UK Exchequer over £1 billion EVERY MONTH to pay its bills, and has done for years.

Now is the time for NI to leave the UK and rejoin the Republic, which it separated from about 100 years ago.


Here the majority would like to say goodbye - as NI has a very small role in the overall affairs of the UK, but entails a huge cost burden.

Republic of Ireland people - paradoxically - would welcome NI into a United Ireland, with open arms. As most feel the island should never have been partitioned after World War II.
 
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#181703
Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
I think many people would now approve of Ireland becoming one country. Likewise, now, Scotland should become one country. Personally I'd prefer the UK to remain one country and remain in the EU - indeed, more fully (i.e. drop Stirling and embrace the Euro). And no border control in the EU at all (as currently between France and Italy etc). Complete customs Union. Less Nationalism = More Humanity.
 
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#181711
Barney

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
Barney wrote:
most feel the island should never have been partitioned after World War II

World War I*


 
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#181712
Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
Yes I did wonder about the Troubles seeming to start far longer ago! But as you get old you muddle time especially when you're having a potato famine in your house!
 
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#181719
Barney

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
JK2006 wrote:
I think many people would now approve of Ireland becoming one country. Likewise, now, Scotland should become one country. Personally I'd prefer the UK to remain one country and remain in the EU - indeed, more fully (i.e. drop Stirling and embrace the Euro). And no border control in the EU at all (as currently between France and Italy etc). Complete customs Union. Less Nationalism = More Humanity.


You may well be right.

The principal obstruction to Brexit appears to be Northern Ireland - and its land border with a neighbouring country, which will remain part of the EU.

Republic of Ireland would jump at the chance to reannex NI, so it seems a realistic option.

However - for economic reasons (NI's poor financial health) - a significant premium would have to be paid.


By the UK (to RoI) - who are currently bolstering NI to the tune of £1 billion, a month.

Perhaps c3 years payments might be the figure?

£40/50 billion...



 
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#181724
hedda

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
Nary a single mention of the Irish Border problem during the Brexit campaign...from either side.

It shows that the entire campaign was completely botched with the "winners" telling outrageous porkies and the "losers" confidently believing they would win any way so didn't have to try too hard.

And still : the fanatical claim that anon-binding referendum must be implemented when it's the biggest and most dramatic change in UK life possibly ever..

## the ridiculous cries of "Democracy" by the Brexit Mob must be dismissed as the rubbish they are especially after it's been revealed the major Brexit Campaigners committed fraud and acted criminally (not: The Met are refusing to investigate because it's "political".

### The rise & successes of Fascism and the extreme right wing in Europe must not be ignored either.

Generations have now forgotten how it began in the 1930s and quickly led to Nazi Germany despite a majority of Germans never voting for them.
# My mother's family fled East Europe to the UK in the mid-30s fearing Fascism while their Jewish friends said they were being extreme. They survived, their friends didn't.
 
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#181725
Kanye West Sussex

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
There is no hard border between Norway and Sweden; one is a fully paid-up member of the EU, and the other is not. One is in the Customs Union, and the other is not, yet somehow they have managed to make it work. Could somebody please enlighten us, and explain why the same arrangement would not work for NI/ROI? Ta.
 
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#181728
Barney

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
Often described as a smugglers'charter, it is debatable whether the Norway/Sweden border arrangements really work.

Probably - the answer is yes - but totally due to the enormous customs and police controls in place. When smugglers abandon their cars, they are frequently pursued on foot.

With a border over 3 times longer than that on the island of Ireland, eastern European smuggling gangs are very active and innovative.


Innovation was also a feature when the Irish border existed. Smuggling was rife, and often organised and funded by the IRA.

With over 200 roads crossing the Irish border, the control of smuggling became a nightmare for authorities on both sides of the divide.

Many farms straddle the border, and it was common for pigs to be brought into the farm from the North (having been purchased there) - leaving the same farm into the Southern economy, taking advantage of higher prices there.

Goods could be smuggled in this fashion in either direction - and virtually impossible to detect.

Except perhaps by drones - but these wouldn't help detect traffic through the plethora of tunnels...



 
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#181730
Kanye West Sussex

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
So it sounds like we'll end up getting another election. I can't imagine May and the DUP will approve another referendum. If ushers in a Corbyn government, and considering his track record on supporting the republicans, who knows what that could lead to over there. Of course May could surprise us all and get herself a majority.
 
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#181732
Barney

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
Who knows, is right.

Just three significant points:-


1. Over two thirds of the Republic's beef is exported to the UK, as well as about 80% of its dairy produce. So Brexit is just as important to them, though they have no say.

2. A United Ireland - a possible solution? The Republic simply couldn't afford the £1b a month it costs us to support NI. RoI has a National Debt of €200b+, after going virtually bankrupt in recent years.

3. General Elections seem likely in the UK and Ireland, delaying matters even further - with the consequential uncertainty negatively affected everyone.


Big investment is being held up - into here and Ireland. Even long established international banks and organisations don't know what to do.

Together with the politicians and beauracrats.


And where I live in the SE, the residential property market has stagnated.



 
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#181753
hedda

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
Doubtful you can compare the Norway / Sweden border with the Irish / UK border problem apart from the fact the Scandinavian countries have had decades of working together mutually and almost mirror each other in 90% of aspects.

# yet another YUGGE problem being ignored:

The newly minted Pentecostal ( speaking in tongues) PM of Australia has just foolishly said he may consider moving the Oz Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in a pathetic attempt to swing a local by-election this Saturday in Malcolm Turnbull's former seat in Sydney's ritzy Eastern Suburbs , home to Oz's biggest Jewish community with a Jewish candidate running.

This has infuriated Indonesia (largest Muslim country in the world) and they have made veiled threats about a new Trade Deal that has almost concluded..after 6 years of negotiations.

5 to 10 years is normal when making these deals..they are complicated and require a huge local infrastructure to negotiate.

The UK will need to make 100s of new trade deals with Brexit and need possibly 5000 trained negotiators. They have few as all this is done in the EU.
 
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#181763
Barney

Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago  
hedda wrote:
Doubtful you can compare the Norway / Sweden border with the Irish / UK border problem apart from the fact the Scandinavian countries have had decades of working together mutually and almost mirror each other in 90% of aspects

The 90% mirroring would be similar between NI and the Republic. Dundalk and Newry - on opposite sides of the border, and less than 15 miles apart - are virtually doppelgangers.

Same language, goods, pubs/shops, restaurants, vehicles, accents etc. - with thousands living in one town and working in the other.

Commuting also for social, sporting and retail reasons. Apart from the two currencies, it's difficult to know which country you're in!


But as is currently the case in Norway/Sweden - when the border existed, until relatively recently on the island of Ireland - a black economy was built on the back of a vibrant and lucrative smugglers' paradise.



 
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