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As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit
TOPIC: As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit
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Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago
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A major obstacle, to most Brexit related matters - including the border - is the Democratic Unionist Party.
The DUP's 10 Westminster MPs support Ms May's government and have a formal agreement with it - which, if cancelled/withdrawn from, would bring down the government.
Ms May was forced into this agreement (to stay in power), and will regret having her hands tied by a small local party - with a very limited agenda.
Sadly, this agenda only concerns the DUP's own vision for Northern Ireland - which is at variance with the two main parties, on virtually every matter.
Economically, NI is a basket case with little industry and 24% corporation tax - compared to half that in the adjacent Republic
Without a parliament for c20 months, the province is rudderless - and run from Westminster.
In addition - NI costs the UK Exchequer over £1 billion EVERY MONTH to pay its bills, and has done for years.
Now is the time for NI to leave the UK and rejoin the Republic, which it separated from about 100 years ago.
Here the majority would like to say goodbye - as NI has a very small role in the overall affairs of the UK, but entails a huge cost burden.
Republic of Ireland people - paradoxically - would welcome NI into a United Ireland, with open arms. As most feel the island should never have been partitioned after World War II.
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Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago
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JK2006 wrote:
I think many people would now approve of Ireland becoming one country. Likewise, now, Scotland should become one country. Personally I'd prefer the UK to remain one country and remain in the EU - indeed, more fully (i.e. drop Stirling and embrace the Euro). And no border control in the EU at all (as currently between France and Italy etc). Complete customs Union. Less Nationalism = More Humanity.
You may well be right.
The principal obstruction to Brexit appears to be Northern Ireland - and its land border with a neighbouring country, which will remain part of the EU.
Republic of Ireland would jump at the chance to reannex NI, so it seems a realistic option.
However - for economic reasons (NI's poor financial health) - a significant premium would have to be paid.
By the UK (to RoI) - who are currently bolstering NI to the tune of £1 billion, a month.
Perhaps c3 years payments might be the figure?
£40/50 billion...
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Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago
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Often described as a smugglers'charter, it is debatable whether the Norway/Sweden border arrangements really work.
Probably - the answer is yes - but totally due to the enormous customs and police controls in place. When smugglers abandon their cars, they are frequently pursued on foot.
With a border over 3 times longer than that on the island of Ireland, eastern European smuggling gangs are very active and innovative.
Innovation was also a feature when the Irish border existed. Smuggling was rife, and often organised and funded by the IRA.
With over 200 roads crossing the Irish border, the control of smuggling became a nightmare for authorities on both sides of the divide.
Many farms straddle the border, and it was common for pigs to be brought into the farm from the North (having been purchased there) - leaving the same farm into the Southern economy, taking advantage of higher prices there.
Goods could be smuggled in this fashion in either direction - and virtually impossible to detect.
Except perhaps by drones - but these wouldn't help detect traffic through the plethora of tunnels...
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Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago
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Who knows, is right.
Just three significant points:-
1. Over two thirds of the Republic's beef is exported to the UK, as well as about 80% of its dairy produce. So Brexit is just as important to them, though they have no say.
2. A United Ireland - a possible solution? The Republic simply couldn't afford the £1b a month it costs us to support NI. RoI has a National Debt of €200b+, after going virtually bankrupt in recent years.
3. General Elections seem likely in the UK and Ireland, delaying matters even further - with the consequential uncertainty negatively affected everyone.
Big investment is being held up - into here and Ireland. Even long established international banks and organisations don't know what to do.
Together with the politicians and beauracrats.
And where I live in the SE, the residential property market has stagnated.
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Re:As predicted the Irish border will stop Brexit 5 Years, 6 Months ago
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hedda wrote:
Doubtful you can compare the Norway / Sweden border with the Irish / UK border problem apart from the fact the Scandinavian countries have had decades of working together mutually and almost mirror each other in 90% of aspects
The 90% mirroring would be similar between NI and the Republic. Dundalk and Newry - on opposite sides of the border, and less than 15 miles apart - are virtually doppelgangers.
Same language, goods, pubs/shops, restaurants, vehicles, accents etc. - with thousands living in one town and working in the other.
Commuting also for social, sporting and retail reasons. Apart from the two currencies, it's difficult to know which country you're in!
But as is currently the case in Norway/Sweden - when the border existed, until relatively recently on the island of Ireland - a black economy was built on the back of a vibrant and lucrative smugglers' paradise.
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