The penny has dropped for Northern Ireland dairy farmers - over 3,000 of which have about 300,000 cattle.

Virtually all of the milk produced is exported south to the Republic of Ireland - over 800 million litres, annually. As both countries are currently in the EU, no levies apply.

But when NI leaves the EU (in 7 weeks time), tariffs will kick in - making it totally uneconomical for the RoI to buy milk from NI.

Roughly speaking, the 25p per litre retail cost in RoI (with a 19/20p EU levy, applicable in RoI) would increase to c45p. Thus a major market for NI will be lost.


And there are so many more examples.

One more - about 80% of RoI beef and dairy produce comes to the UK mainland; that market will soon be denied them.

We too, will have to sourse from new markets.


More unown factors and consequences are around every corner....

On leaving the EU also, the UK will default to World Trade Organisation terms.

A very crucial factor, as we don't produce enough dairy products to fulfill our own needs.

Essentially therefore, dairy prices will escalate - particularly for high quality products, such as some cheeses and yogurts.

Fishing will have unclear boundaries, transport will be problematical, medical attention abroad- a lottery.


The list is simply endless. I'm going nowhere until 2021/31.

re "the troubles" and fear they may happen again..

I heard 3 IRA bombs go off in London. I expect 10,000s of others did as well although they stick in my mind and especially as the Harrod's bomb killed a friend who I was going to meet that day.

As I walked across Hyde Park to meet he and his fiancee I heard that awful dull thud which I knew was a bomb (they are never like those Hollywood movie exaggerated explosions) and then saw dark smoke arising and figured..I'll turn around and go back home as I knew chaos would ensue.

My pal had just been given a great job on a newspaper ironically after another pal who had it, died while in Australia a few months earlier. We were going to go for an afternoon drink to celebrate. He, being a budding young hack had got wind of a IRA message re the bomb and rather than flee as cops tried to hurry people away..went directly to where it was..presumably he saw a policewoman inspecting a car (she died as well) and went straight to it. His body was thrown onto the roof of Harrods.

Sorry ..long winded but I decided to just check on the number of IRA attacks in the UK and was absolutely shocked to see they number in the 100s and happened every year after year right up until the ceasefire.

I wonder if that could possibly happen again?

Are the IRA etc still that committed?

Around 2012, the New IRA was formed - from a number of dissident Republican groups in Northern Ireland.

They were responsible for the murder of journalist Lyra McKee a few months ago, and see Brexit as a means to a united Ireland.

Opinion polls on the island vary - an average would be 55% against a united Ireland; 45% for.

Disillusionment with the economy in NI will see more supporting the united cause. The UK Exchequer props up the province with a £1 million subvention, every month.

However - with a National Debt of €206+ billion (costing over €5 billion in interest, every year), the Republic of Ireland simply couldn't afford NI.

And the monthly subvention would simply be impossible to fund...

It's becoming increasingly obvious that Brexit will be a colossal act of self-harm, probably with consequences that haven't yet been anticipated. Exasperating and infuriating and Johnson inspires even less confidence than May. Sorry to hear about your friend, hedda.

However, economics are not the strong point of fanatics who want a united Ireland at all costs.

And still revere the 1916 leaders of the uprising - all of whom were executed by the British.

Since the troubles began, nearly 4,000 people were killed - on the island of Ireland and on the UK mainland.

By seeing Brexit as an opportunity, the New IRA could well recommence terrorist operations - on the back of austerity and discontent.

The reemergence of a physical border - between north and south - would be a godsend to their paramilitary activities, financed by smuggling and theft.

Barney wrote:
However, economics are not the strong point of fanatics who want a united Ireland at all costs.

And still revere the 1916 leaders of the uprising - all of whom were executed by the British.

Since the troubles began, nearly 4,000 people were killed - on the island of Ireland and on the UK mainland.

By seeing Brexit as an opportunity, the New IRA could well recommence terrorist operations - on the back of austerity and discontent.

The reemergence of a physical border - between north and south - would be a godsend to their paramilitary activities, financed by smuggling and theft.

I agree with a lot of this but differ on the point that economics is not a major driving factor. It may not be a litersl reason for fanaticism but economic austerity and unemployment are a significant factor in creating the right conditions to attract - usually - young men into the ranks. When you don't know where you fit, need to get laid and have no self esteem outside of being part of a "cause" it is a fecund breeding ground. Btexit one way or another will equal more violence of this kind. And further: the unemployed man drinking more who assaults his wife, the kids as witness. Catastrophising? Well maybe a little, but the increase in violence and crime of particular kinds will I assert prove real...