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Topic History of: Covid19: a trivial virus; Update
Max. showing the last 5 posts - (Last post first)
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JK2006 |
My antibody test was negative; so was my brother's (he almost died with double pneumonia in January). But doctors say that doesn't mean we never had it; just that we don't have antibodies (I suspect I didn't need them - my mild symptoms were beaten by paracetamol). |
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wjlmarsh |
Need to add that the number of Covid 19 cases reported are just that. "The cases reported". I am reasonably certain I had Covid 19 and I never reported it. Others have had such a mild case they never even noticed and some are picked up on a routine test somewhere maybe quarantine or a random sample. A sample test of people of + Covid 19 and an antibody test may give an indication. But one doctor (some consider unreliable) noted some have developed immunity but will not show up on an antibody test. And then how do we know the testing is reliable.
So if the assumed 14% of reported cases are fatal then if the non reported cases are 10 X the reported cases then that would make it 1.4% I guess. But it could be 100 X who's to say. |
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wyot |
I admire your tenacity on this subject JK but it doesn't matter how many times logic and perspective is repeated it seems millions will never be able to remove the spectacles of fear they wear about this subject thanks to Ferguson's bollocks predictions (he has made a career of that) and the power of the media.
Yes there is a risk and it just now nerds to be managed sensibly. |
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wjlmarsh |
Dr Strangelove wrote:
The problem is, we don't know how many people have had coronavirus and then recovered. There was a BBC report a while back which suggested only 1 in 400 of us have actually had it. If you take the figures published on the Worldometers website, the total number of deaths in the U.K. expressed as a percentage of known COVID-19 cases, we get a fatality rate of 14%. If you then factor in the social distancing and lockdown measures, it seems very likely that the vast majority of us haven't been exposed to the virus yet.
Please tell us where you get your figures from? You always say with certainty that it's only 5% of us who become very ill with the virus, and then about 1% who go on to die. Without all the draconian measures we have had to observe, if the fatality rate is 1% and everybody caught the virus, there would probably be a total death rate of around 650,000; this would be unacceptable to even the most heartless dictator. Would that be palatable to a foot stamping butterfly such as yourself?
Just to highlight your reading of the media is now "out of date". As I noted, before it was corrected, that the 1 in 400 was a sample at a point in time. Now it is stated that is the case and does not account for people now with antibodies etc. Later tests and re looking at the results are highlighting that it is about 20 % that have had some form of Covid 19 I am not bothering to go back to articles as testing and analysis as reported in the media is quite abysmal. It wouldn't surprise me if a large percentage of UK people are now immune. No source just think it is possible |
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JK2006 |
How many have had Covid19? We have absolutely no idea. We are told the vast majority have no or mild symptoms. They have never been tested.
You assume the lockdown kept down the death rate. Why? South Korea had no lockdown. 250 deaths. Greece DID lockdown. 172 deaths.
However many end up dead in the UK it will be a small quantity, comparable with a bad season of Flu or annual cancer deaths or road accidents or strokes.
I repeat: concentrated priorities to protect & treat the vulnerable makes more sense to me than trying to stop the spread.
Especially when a total lockdown kills the economy, damages society and leads to thousands of deaths from unrelated ills that don't attend hospital. |
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