Even if they polled 20% (hardly likely) - Ukip would still have less than 8 seats.

There are a number of reasons for this -

Established local strength

The Liberal party had been one of the two major parties until 1922. It had built up strong local roots in many areas, and was able to maintain some of these roots even as its national support withered. That left some concentrated pockets of Liberal support, which were able to elect Liberal MPs. For instance, four out of the six Liberal seats in 1951 were in the "celtic fringes" of Scotland and Wales.

Strong candidates

Having strong well-known candidates can draw in support from other parties and beat the national trend. This "incumbency factor" was visible at the 2010 election in seats like Eastleigh (Christopher Huhne) and Brent Central (Sarah Teather) where a well-known Liberal Democrat incumbent held the seat against the odds.

Tactical voting

The Liberal Democrats have benefitted from tactical voting in recent years. Where they are in second place to one of the major parties, they can benefit from tactical votes from natural supporters of the third-placed party. Typically they gain tactical Labour votes in the South to "keep the Tories out", and vice versa some tactical Conservative votes in the North.

None of these factors apply to UKIP at the present time. They do not have particular local roots. They do not yet have particularly well-known and strong candidates, other than the leader Nigel Farage. And they are unlikely to benefit from tactical voting, since they are viewed as being to the right of both major parties (rather than in-between), - and they do not start from second place in any Westminster seat.

In The Know (as always) wrote:
Even if they polled 20% (hardly likely) - Ukip would still have less than 8 seats.

There are a number of reasons for this -

Established local strength

The Liberal party had been one of the two major parties until 1922. It had built up strong local roots in many areas, and was able to maintain some of these roots even as its national support withered. That left some concentrated pockets of Liberal support, which were able to elect Liberal MPs. For instance, four out of the six Liberal seats in 1951 were in the "celtic fringes" of Scotland and Wales.

Strong candidates

Having strong well-known candidates can draw in support from other parties and beat the national trend. This "incumbency factor" was visible at the 2010 election in seats like Eastleigh (Christopher Huhne) and Brent Central (Sarah Teather) where a well-known Liberal Democrat incumbent held the seat against the odds.

Tactical voting

The Liberal Democrats have benefitted from tactical voting in recent years. Where they are in second place to one of the major parties, they can benefit from tactical votes from natural supporters of the third-placed party. Typically they gain tactical Labour votes in the South to "keep the Tories out", and vice versa some tactical Conservative votes in the North.

None of these factors apply to UKIP at the present time. They do not have particular local roots. They do not yet have particularly well-known and strong candidates, other than the leader Nigel Farage. And they are unlikely to benefit from tactical voting, since they are viewed as being to the right of both major parties (rather than in-between), - and they do not start from second place in any Westminster seat.
And this from a man with absolutely no 'local knowledge' of UKIP's main support area..the south east...

What was your prediction about the up coming by-election?

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/534791/B...d-Strood-by-election

The Looney Libs may hang on to a few seats,but polls put them down to a single seat in Scotland,and not much more elsewhere....if they get 10% they will have done extremely well given their opinion poll showings...

..and do not forget this,from your favourite news source no less

news.sky.com/story/1351484/ukip-could-wi...00-seats-say-experts

UKIP will also benefit from tactical voting,do not forget the traditional Labour working class voter,who will not vote Tory out of habit,but is fine with UKIP...keep believing ITK,it must be of comfort,Labour will have the most seats,it's built into the current electoral system...you can thank useless Clegg for losing the battle for electoral reform...as he'll loose the election...

ITK's post is verbatim - again, no credit - from Electoral Calculus.

Will post link when I get home.

Pattaya wrote:
do not forget the traditional Labour working class voter,who will not vote Tory out of habit,but is fine with UKIP...

Yep - just seen the Farage "lets shut down the NHS and make everyone buy insurance" clip on BBC news !

That will go down very well with the Labour loonies lol !

IF you knew just how right wing Farage and his nutters are - you wouldn't touch them with a bargepole (but they are depending on the stupid voting for them).

SP17 wrote:
ITK's post is verbatim - again, no credit - from Electoral Calculus.

Will post link when I get home.





Mr King - most posters get their information from somewhere; but to post verbatim from the internet (from a piece written by an unknown person/organisation) - does your fine/interesting site no service.

www.electoralcalculus.co.UK/Analysis_UKIP.html


After the second table - in the link - the origin of ITK's post is clear. And begs the question - why does he have to search the internet for arguments to support his dated philosophy.

The Tories were a fine party, like many. But not - in the modern/wide world - to be followed blindly.



And I believe that Plagiarism is still a crime.....

In The Know (as always) wrote:
[quote]Pattaya wrote:


IF you knew just how right wing Farage and his nutters are - you wouldn't touch them with a bargepole (but they are depending on the stupid voting for them).

We must be so lucky we have you here as the voice of political moderation on this board ITK ....how are the slaves on your plantation this evening?

Let's play predict the election !

Simply enter yoiur predictions into the calculator and see how many seats each party gets !

For example, if you give 30 to the Tories, and 30 to Labour, with 10 to the Lib Dems,
and, let's be extra generous and give Ukip 20 ......

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

Ukip STILL end up with NO SEATS !

Pattaya wrote:
We must be so lucky we have you here as the voice of political moderation on this board ITK ....

You are !

You COULD simply ignore my posts - BUT as I'm always right, thats why you are so hung on every word !

I even have my own troll - someone so obsessed with my posts that he spends hours surfing the net desperately trying to make a point
(and ALWAYS loses ! So much so that he has changed his name a dozen times now !) Poor sad individual.

how are the slaves on your plantation this evening?

Don't know - I was at the theatre, we employ estate managers to look after the peasants.

In The Know (as always) wrote:
spends hours surfing the net desperately trying to make a point

Yes - you do, ITK.

Why post, verbatim, an Electoral Calculus article - without acknowledging its source?

Did you think nobody would notice?

Electoral Calculus - the organisation ITK likes to quote (as himself, and without providing links or even acknowledging their existence) - now give the following General Election prediction:-


Conservative 263

Labour 302

Lib Dem 16



Labour 24 short of a majority

And beating the Conservatives by 39 seats



www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

SP17 wrote:
SP17 wrote:
ITK's post is verbatim - again, no credit - from Electoral Calculus.

Will post link when I get home.





Mr King - most posters get their information from somewhere; but to post verbatim from the internet (from a piece written by an unknown person/organisation) - does your fine/interesting site no service.

www.electoralcalculus.co.UK/Analysis_UKIP.html


After the second table - in the link - the origin of ITK's post is clear. And begs the question - why does he have to search the internet for arguments to support his dated philosophy.

The Tories were a fine party, like many. But not - in the modern/wide world - to be followed blindly.



And I believe that Plagiarism is still a crime.....





I think it is your constant attacking of one poster which does the site no service rather than someone forgetting to credit his source.

In The Know (as always) wrote:
Pattaya wrote:
We must be so lucky we have you here as the voice of political moderation on this board ITK ....

You are !

You COULD simply ignore my posts - BUT as I'm always right, thats why you are so hung on every word !


ITK without ye this board would be sterile and boring ...every comedian needs a straight man to get the most out of his humour...and every board needs a...

any moment now - the little green badger ???

In The Know (as always) wrote:

IF you knew just how right wing Farage and his nutters are - you wouldn't touch them with a bargepole (but they are depending on the stupid voting for them).

Other footage showed him proposing slashing the BBC so that it focused on radio rather than TV and making the long-term unemployed pick up litter

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-fara...ra-admitting-4617184

... you HAVE to admit - he's got some good ideas !

In The Know (as always) wrote:
In The Know (as always) wrote:

IF you knew just how right wing Farage and his nutters are - you wouldn't touch them with a bargepole (but they are depending on the stupid voting for them).

Other footage showed him proposing slashing the BBC so that it focused on radio rather than TV and making the long-term unemployed pick up litter

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-fara...ra-admitting-4617184

... you HAVE to admit - he's got some good ideas !

Ahhhh...The Mirror,the only paper to give its full support to Milliband

How is Bakewell this fine day?

Codnor actually

Pattaya wrote:

How is Bakewell this fine day?

No idea .... may be there over the weekend (well, Ashford actually)

In The Know (as always) wrote:
Pattaya wrote:

How is Bakewell this fine day?

No idea .... may be there over the weekend (well, Ashford actually)

We had weather warnings,but it wasn't so bad a day here...hope your weather wasn't so bad either.

rain this morning - but the sun came out this afternoon.

quite foggy now though

In The Know wrote:
rain this morning - but the sun came out this afternoon.

quite foggy now though

It gets dark so damn early I may well head for sunnier climes!