Asked in the Ashcroft poll who would be prime minister after the election, just 23% said they expected it to be Mr Miliband, against 59% who named Mr Cameron.

"In other words, though all outcomes seem possible, most voters just do not think Mr Miliband will reach Downing Street," said Lord Ashcroft.

And a prediction by a group of politics academics, electionforecast.co.uk, suggests Britain may be heading for a dead heat in the election.

The website tips Labour to win 284 seats, the Conservatives 283, the Liberal Democrats 24, the Scottish National Party 33
and UKIP just four, despite all of leader Nigel Farage’s boasts since his party's by-election triumph last week.

news.sky.com/story/1379694/labour-ahead-...lls-despite-flag-row

now then ... what does 283 + 24 make ...... ?

Ye spend ye olde life distoring and inventing statistics Mr Know

Three separate polls there

'The latest weekly poll by former Tory chief Lord Ashcroft puts Labour on 32% (up two points since last week), the Conservatives on 27% (down two), UKIP on 18% (up two), the Liberal Democrats on 7% (down two) and the Greens unchanged on 7%.'

'And a poll by Populus puts Labour on 36%, the Conservatives on 31%, UKIP on 15%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and the Greens on 5%.'

'A third poll, by YouGov for The Times and The Sun, gives Labour a four-point lead, putting the party on 34%, with the Conservatives on 30%, the Liberal Democrats on 6%, UKIP on 18% and the Greens on 6%.'

Oh and don't forget this little bit

'The poll findings will be a massive relief to Mr Miliband and his inner circle after a torrid week in which his critics have intensified their attacks on his leadership.'

Oh and your prediction of seat comes from a group of 'political academics'...the sort of class Milliband and his daddy came from....lol

Seats are notoriously hard to predict at the moment,the old model is defunct,and shocks will be coming all over the place.The last poll in Scotland put the Looney Libs on a single seat,so 24 does seem a little excessive,especially on as little as 6%!

Pattaya wrote:
Y
'The latest weekly poll by former Tory chief Lord Ashcroft puts Labour on 32% (up two points since last week), the Conservatives on 27% (down two), UKIP on 18% (up two), the Liberal Democrats on 7% (down two) and the Greens unchanged on 7%.'

... and 27 + 7 is .... ?
more than 32?

'And a poll by Populus puts Labour on 36%, the Conservatives on 31%, UKIP on 15%, the Liberal Democrats on 9% and the Greens on 5%.'

... and whats 31 + 9 .... ?
more than 36?

'A third poll, by YouGov for The Times and The Sun, gives Labour a four-point lead, putting the party on 34%, with the Conservatives on 30%, the Liberal Democrats on 6%, UKIP on 18% and the Greens on 6%.'

... what about 30 + 6 .... ?
more than 34?

The answers to ALL of the above, is ....... a government !

In The Know (as always) wrote:
[quote]Pattaya wrote:


The answers to ALL of the above, is ....... a government !

When did our 'first past the post' electoral system equate to a direct percentage points for seats distribution?

And if ye add in the percentages for UKIP and SNP what happens if ye add them to the Labour score?

Pattaya wrote:
When did our 'first past the post' electoral system equate to a direct percentage points for seats distribution?


The sitting government CAN (and has always been able to) remain in power should they wish. They could continue as a minority government (unlikely) or join another Coalition.

How do you think the Italians do it ?????

==

In the 2010 General Election, the Conservatives won the most seats and votes, but only a minority of seats in parliament. There was therefore some discussion after the election of the possibility of creating a Conservative minority government. There were also talks about creating an alliance between the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and other smaller parties, as then Prime Minister Gordon Brown had the first opportunity to form a government. Brown however waived this right, acknowledging that the Conservative Party should have the first opportunity to form a coalition government as they had won the largest number of seats in the House of Commons. Further discussions then led to the formation of a coalition government, which was also a majority government, between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, as it was thought this would be more stable.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_government#United_Kingdom

In The Know (as always) wrote:
Pattaya wrote:
When did our 'first past the post' electoral system equate to a direct percentage points for seats distribution?


The sitting government CAN (and has always been able to) remain in power should they wish. They could continue as a minority government (unlikely) or join another Coalition.

How do you think the Italians do it ?????

If they're short of seats and another party has more then they'll be out...
...Italians have Proportional representation...and have always had to have a mixed bag,due to the nature of the country,and all the different parties with a long history...
...remember the Risorgimento was only in 1861,and even now it doesn't feel like the same country passing beyond the old Papal States.

Pattaya wrote:

If they're short of seats and another party has more then they'll be out...


NOT SO !

The Tories will have first option of forming a new government ... only if they cannot do so will Queen Betty phone Silliband.

In The Know (as always) wrote:
There were also talks about creating an alliance between the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and other smaller parties, as then Prime Minister Gordon Brown had the first opportunity to form a government. Brown however waived this right,

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_government#United_Kingdom

Check the LAST election result .... Brown's 258 seats plus the Lib Dems 57 beat the Tories 307 seats ... and they could have remained in power (THATS the reason they were trying to "woo" the Lib Dems !!!!!!).

BUT ... the Lib Dems (being a party of principle !) decided that as the public had rejected Labour it would NOT be right to prop them up !!!

news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

[/quote]BUT ... the Lib Dems (being a party of principle !)
[/quote]

Principled enough to try to take us into economic ruin with The Euro?

Principled enough to give OUR money away to countries most of us do not want it to go?

Principled enough to be so out of touch with modern politics they're facing a poor fifth position on a miserable 6-8%...behind the Greens?

Principled enough to win a single seat in Scotland?

Principled enough....to face wipeout?

Hope your day went well ITK,keep that Credit card guarded at all times!
Mrs ITK + Xmas = .......!!!

Pattaya wrote:
they're facing a poor fifth position on a miserable 6-8%...behind the Greens?


... but in front of Ukip (who will only get 4 seats MAX - just behind Sinn Fein lol !) !

... and they will be in government.

... and Nick will (again) be Deputy PM !

In The Know (as always) wrote:
Pattaya wrote:
they're facing a poor fifth position on a miserable 6-8%...behind the Greens?


... but in front of Ukip (who will only get 4 seats MAX - just behind Sinn Fein lol !) !

... and they will be in government.

... and Nick will (again) be Deputy PM !

Mr King would like us to give up politics on this board...perhaps he's going to join the Libs?

In The Know (as always) wrote:
Pattaya wrote:
they're facing a poor fifth position on a miserable 6-8%...behind the Greens?


... but in front of Ukip (who will only get 4 seats MAX - just behind Sinn Fein lol !) !

... and they will be in government.

... and Nick will (again) be Deputy PM !

ITK has been on 38 Degrees again.