Many women are raped – 85,000 a year. Horrific. According to "accepted wisdom" very few lie about it
...
I have never disputed that figure, many men have, I disagree with those men.
There can never be 100% accurate figures but, these best statistics come from
the UK crime survey. (UKCS) They are regarded as the most reliable crime statistics because their large samples have produced consistent results for 40 years now.
Extrapolated figures from this national survey consistently suggest around 80 – 85,000 women are raped each year. This figure being consistent over decades makes it more reliable than any other, one-off, estimate.
The same survey consistently states that between 8% and 15% actually report that rape to the police. Again, largely consistent over decades, this figure has slowly risen, most notably since 2008, suggesting women rape victims are less reluctant to go to the police than they used to be, that's a good thing, but, long way to go... (*Male victims not in calculation, see below)
Anecdotally, Rape Crisis and Women's Aid have supported and quoted these figures (which is perhaps why some men have distrusted them) whilst suggesting, often on the same web sites, that only 2 % of rape reports are false.
Basic maths states that when 10% of 85,000 victims reported their rapes that's 8,500 reports.
When it is 15% (as stated in 2018 by the UKCS) that makes 12,750.
* Note: Male rape victim report figures are so low as to be statistically almost irrelevant, at some 250 per year. Estimates are that some 9,000 - 12,000 men per year are raped.
Women's Aid and Rape Crisis have had no problem with these figures. For example, 2004 – 2009,
when total rape reports to the police (something we
can measure accurately) have drifted up and down, but overall risen slightly, so that around 14,500 female rape reports were made in 2009.
this gives a basic suggestion that probably at least 1,750 reports (8%) were not genuine.
And there the discussion about fake reports stayed...With me so far?
During the next 4 years the police rape report figures rose steadily to 16,374. in 2013-14
then over the next 4 years they rose much more steeply – to
53,977 in 2017 -18.
All this time the annual UKCS figures stayed remarkably consistent. So estimates based on standard statistical error probabilities, give us:- up to 18,500 genuine rape victims (including men and historic cases) reported their rapes to police in the year to April 2018.
That makes 35,000 reports of rape from...
liars...WAIT! Hang on! Hold the Phone!
I mean, what do Rape Crisis and Women's Aid make of this simple maths? given their faith in the UKCS statistics and their lack of any dispute with the police over the number of reported rapes?
Are they saying the UKCS, after 40 years of accepted accuracy, is wrong by a factor of over 300% ?
The basic modern Feminist position seems to be that, yes – actually the figures are so wrong that, 70% and not 15% of genuine victims have suddenly decided to go to the police (so 55% lied to the survey about their reporting action or intent to act) ...really? I know quite a few rape victims, the obvious reasons they didn't go to the police remain to this day.
This is a smell test fail.
My explanation is the Occam's Razor version, that, yes, women lie about being raped, and the UK victim industry has gone steadily into overdrive – so that false claimants are the one aspect of this picture that has risen dramatically. And bad “Liam Allan” cases, conviction rates, plus anecdotal evidence all support this argument.
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