Only the very brave will be active this week in the share market - with all types of negative data emanating from every quarter.

Central banks, governments, international conglomerates, oil companies - are all phased by the Brexit/Virus potential consequences.

And alarmed by the Treasury's spending - which is expected to be in excess of £300 billion - and will undoubtedly lead to severe austerity programs.


However, although the data is awful everywhere, times like this bring out the smart investor.

Who will identify opportunities - to make serious money, in the midst of volatility and crises.

Many businesses too, will be keen to get an investment stimulus - at what is likely to be their most difficult time.

GDP is expected to shrink by 14% in 2020 - beaten only in 1706, just after the Bank of England was founded.

The prediction is for a Q2 contraction of 25% - unheard of in our history, and most of the world's.


Our options are limited to borrowing, taxation and spending cuts - and likely to be a combination of all three.

Brexit has changed too - as most of Europe is suffering also. And it may not be the opportune time to complete our withdrawal.

There will no doubt be people who can take advantage of this situation. What I'm concerned about most is the economic crisis developing into a financial one, e.g. if lots of companies/individuals default on their loans, and banks collapsing. After a run-in with a bogus financial adviser several years ago, I have kept most of my savings in bank accounts, most with one bank, and would get only a small fraction of it back if the bank collapsed and there was a bail-in and confiscation of depositors' savings, something that has apparently been an EU-wide rule (and rule in the UK and other countries) since 2014. Under the rule, savings above 85,000 pounds/100,000 euros per financial institution are forfeit. It was already done in Cyprus in 2013, when depositors experienced huge losses, billions, when banks were bailed in. I had always thought the biggest problem with keeping money in the bank was just not getting a good return and the attrition of inflation rather than the existence of the bank possibly being at risk and threatening one's savings.

Bank failures have been common recently.

So it's important to be cognizant of the £85,000 guarantee limit.

Although banks are hardly the place for cash at the moment - with shares currently at a very low ebb.


Opportunities are all around us.

But the trick is to identify which sector will recover the fastest!

Will it be leisure, retail or something like oil...

Barney wrote:
Bank failures have been common recently.
Really? Which ones? I haven't been aware of any in the UK since the 2008/2009 financial crisis, let alone of them being common since then.

Recently - meaning the last 15 years or so.


And with the inevitable depression coming our way, there will be many more failures of financial institutions.

Particularly if the property market - property often being a bank's principal security for loans - doesn't quickly regenerate.