JK2006 wrote:
So what has Cassandra King been predicting for the past couple of weeks? The Ukrainians will be happy to secede those two annoying Eastern provinces to Russia. Russia will withdraw, proclaim peace and ask the West to cancel all sanctions. End of. Next Media drama please.
The moment Putin launched a full invasion into Ukraine he revealed that he is not a rational agent; as it is totally against his interests. So I can't see how it can play out like this.
My predictions: a long drawn out war that drags out into the summer; escalating slowly but surely. Russia will take the Country, but the Ukranians will never let him own it. He will either in the summer be taken out by his own side or out of sheer frustration and to "end it" (citing the Wests actions at Hiroshima as precedent) explode a localised nuclear warhead in Ukraine.
At this point we will be drawn into a conventional European war with Russia. The US, for a time, will watch how this goes despite NATO agreements about an attack on one etc. They will find a way not to; because if the US intervene global nuclear destruction for all is certain.
* The US may actually come to an agreement with Putin and other NATO countries about this, while conventional warfare engulfs the continent *
I will stop my predictions there for review (if I am in a position to!

Late Summer).
It perhaps goes without saying that my preferred outcome is that Mr JK gets to bask in the glory of his savvy reading of media and world affairs in a couple of weeks time...