Ukraine confirms Russia captured eastern city Lysychansk

Ukraine's military has confirmed that the eastern city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russian forces.

"After heavy fighting for Lysychansk, the defence forces of Ukraine were forced to withdraw from their occupied positions and lines," the army general staff said.

Earlier Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said his forces had captured Lysychansk and taken full control of Luhansk region.

Ukraine's troops were outgunned there.

Its general staff said that "in order to preserve the lives of Ukrainian defenders, a decision was made to withdraw".

It said the Russians had multiple advantages in artillery, aircraft, manpower and other forces. ...
Mariupol, Severodonetsk, now Lysychansk. It looks as if Russia is slowly winning this war. They've taken a fifth of the country in four months, so in just over another year they could have taken the whole country. Then Putin could feel emboldened to move on to a NATO country and nowhere in Europe would be safe. I'd been hoping against hope that Ukraine would keep Russia at bay, but each time they show the map of Ukraine on the news, the red wave has gained ground. I doubt that Ukraine pushed Russia out of Kiev or out of that tiny Snake Island. If Russia has superior military capability and Ukraine is admitting that, I suspect that Russia withdrew. Things seem to be looking bleak.

In terms of European security Putin taking Ukraine may prove the safest outcome for all. I suspect talk of him wanting to expand and invade European countries is propaganda. If he loses Ukraine, though, he loses all face: and little sad fucks like him can't handle that...

I wouldn't be so sure it's propaganda. The Baltic states have been nervous of Russia for years and it looks as if Putin may have them in his sights.

Is Russia eyeing the Baltics, again? – opinion (16.6.2022)
...

Putin made ever more clear his rejection of the post-Second World War international order while speaking to a group of young Russians readying to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum held at the All-Russian Exhibition Center (VDNH) last week. …

On Friday in his comments at VDNH, Putin made his own threat against the Baltic countries. The exhibition center opened the previous day an exhibition titled “Peter I: Birth of an Empire,” timed to mark the 350-th anniversary of Peter’s birth. About the land in the far eastern corner of the Baltic Sea where St. Petersburg was founded, Putin said that though other states recognised it as the territory of Sweden, “from time immemorial, the Slavs lived there along with the Finno-Ugric peoples, and this territory was under the control of the Russian state”.

“The same is true [when Peter turned in a] western direction, to Narva and his first campaigns. Why would he go there? He was returning and reinforcing [возвращал и укреплял] – that is what he was doing,” he said. “Clearly, it has fallen to our lot to return and reinforce as well. And if we operate on the premise that these basic values constitute the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in achieving our goals.”

With words like these not only is Putin justifying his war against Ukraine, he is also laying the foundation within Russian society to justify “return and reinforce” other areas as well that in the past have been under Moscow’s control. For the current Russian government, the successful “return” of the Pribaltika would be a prize indeed, a sure sign of a return to past imperial greatness as these lands were brought into the Russian Empire (in the case of Estonia and much of Latvia from 1710, and for Lithuania and the rest of Latvia in the partitions of Poland in 1772 and in 1793-1795). They were also in the Soviet Union in 1940-1941 and then 1945 to 1991. It also likely still sticks in the craw of some Russian imperialists that Lithuania was the to first to reach for independence, announcing the restoration of its independence in March 1990. ...
Ex-NATO general: Risk that Russia invades Baltics is 'real'

I think it is impossible to know what Putin's objectives are; he has never made this clear. Of course the scenarios above are possible, but I am as cynical about how he is portrayed in the West, as I am about how he uses propaganda and media against the West.

Russia is militarily not as powerful as it likes to portray but has the arsenal of nukes. I can't see how a traditional military conflict through attacking a NATO country can end in anything but disaster for Russia.

If it is non traditional then this is disaster for all; including Russia. I don't, ultimately, think it is likely that he will be allowed by his own people to take that step. They won't want to die and their families to die if the portrayal of Putin as an irrational agent who thinks he is Peter The Great proves true.

But it is certainly a worrying situation; the most dangerous times I have lived through, and I don't at all mean to make light of it.