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TOPIC: Eurovision - my decision
#28294
Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Pretty bad selection of songs this year so I reckon my old favourite from 2 years ago Dima Bilan will win for Russia with Believing.
The strange Latvian pirate song owes a lot to Adam Ant and could do quite well.
The crap UK entry currently has odds of 124-1. Don't waste your pennies.
 
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#28298
K

Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Since it was posted on here I thought of backing the Russian entry. What are the odds?
 
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#28303
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
K wrote:
Since it was posted on here I thought of backing the Russian entry. What are the odds?
It's the favourite. 5/1 at best, so you won't be making yourself rich on that one.

I'll stick my neck out and say Dima won't quite make it. In what is, as JK rightly says, a very weak contest, I think Armenia is the one to beat. Ticks all the boxes. Catchy up-tempo number, with an ethnic feel, delivered by a very pretty girl. Even that's only 6/1 though. Male soloists very rarely win Eurovision by the way.

I won't be having any major bets this time until I get out there and experience the live performances. It's the sort of line up where a brilliantly performed song with a memorable stage show could escape out of the sea of mediocrity and into pole position.
 
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#28328
WoEiGo

Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Further to my post on the Leona thread, I've been visiting and reading for ages but I tend not to post but I wanted to say I love this board and the emphasis on positive posts.

Music is going through such a bad phase at present but although the Tipsheet often criticises it attracts the positives and contributes (I know Cowell logs on twice a day).

Eurovision is a prime example - where else can you find informed yet funny comments on this crucial music event?
 
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#28329
In The Know

Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
WoEiGo wrote:
this crucial music event?

????
 
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#28330
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Well ITK, it COULD be and it SHOULD be but it never is because nobody treats it as such.
Except Abba of course.
 
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#28339
In The Know

Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
The whole concept of Eurovision is flawed - because its basically a song contest, but no one ever treats it that way. People try to launch careers off of it (which Abba proved you CAN do, once you have caught your audience).

Also remember that even Abba did not have an instant success from it. Although Waterloo was a No 1 the following 2 singles peaked at 32 and 38 respectively before they finally broke the Top 10 again (at No 6) almost 18 months later with SOS.
 
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#28340
Ben

Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
The bookies are wrong.. Ukraine are going to walk it

 
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#28355
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
In The Know wrote:
The whole concept of Eurovision is flawed - because its basically a song contest, but no one ever treats it that way. People try to launch careers off of it
Eurovision doesn't actually need to be a crucial music event to be a success. It started in 1956 with seven countries. This year there are 43. It has become a huge beast with hundreds of millions of viewers worldwide, more popular than ever, and with a massive obsessed cult following.

Yes, it's a song contest, but someone has to perform the songs, and what performer wouldn't dream of international stardom? In fact, many do launch highly successful careers from it. Not in the UK, but become popular in a country with Russia's population for example, and who needs Britain or even America for that matter?

Essentially though, Eurovision is a stand alone cult event, often more kitsch than class, but always fun.
 
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#28363
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Sadly it has become a diaspora/next door contest.

Armenia and Turkey will get 12 and 10 from Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and France, regardless of what they enter.

Serbia will get 12 from Croatia, Hungary, Switzerland and Montenegro and 8 and 10 from 9 other near neighbours, regardless of what they enter

Russia will get 12 from Armenia, Belarus and Ukraine regardless of what they enter and if none of the baltic countries qualify, they'll get 12 from Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia too.The rest of the ex soviet countries will ensure they get enough points to finish top 5.

The Scandinavians distribute the points amongst each other and Bosnia (diaspora again)

The voting used to be exciting. Now you know where the 8 10 and 12 is going from almost every country and you can quickly flick through the 1-7 for an odd mild surprise.

It's a foregone conclusion that the top 5 this year will be Russia, Ukraine, Serbia, Armenia and Sweden.(pick any order, but not Sweden as winners) Greece will finish between 6-10. UK will finish bottom 3.

Dima Bilan's song is awful. A poor version of Cat Stevens' "Wild world" and sung by anybody else, representing most other countries, would fail to qualify for the final. In 2006 the only juries who rated him top 2 were Latvia, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Poland, Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, Israel and Bulgaria,


You have to be from Scandinavia, Balkans or Baltics to win this contest now. Even with Finland's victory in 2006 look where the 12 points came from.... Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Iceland etc ..

Formula is to get 12 and 10 from your neighbours and/or diaspora and to try and get 3-7 points from those countries who vote the same top three every year. If you represent western Europe, just forget about winning as it isn't possible anymore.
 
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#28372
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
I think you have hit the nail right on the head there Mikemacca. I quit watching Boreovision a couple of years ago because of the pathetic politically biased voting. Since 2002 when Blair took us into Iraq, the UK has been the scum of the contest, not helped by crap songs and performances. I also think it is very wrong that the UK are guaranteed an entry no matter how poorly they fare simply because of the money factor...

Indeed the voting used to be the most exciting part of the show which was a must see for me for most of my life.

I also think another major problem with the contest is the Choreography. Are these dance routines necessary? Why are there so many bloody backing singers? Can't solo singers be solo any more?

This contest is supposed to be about the SONGS - not the outfits, dance routines and cheap stunts (puppets from Ireland this year? Heaven help us...).

Also, is it humanly possible to get through any contest now without any mention or clips of Abba?

The Eurovision Song Contest has become a trivial irrelevance and a miserable farce. It is in desperate need of a major shake up, but what could possibly save it now? What, and who is it really for?
 
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#28373
In The Know

Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Elliott Peters wrote:
What, and who is it really for?

It helps fill the gap between the latest Maria / Joseph and the next X Factor winner - no, I can't remember either!!
 
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#28374
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
I believe it could be and should be a great platform for musical talent; indeed I tried to make it so with Love City Groove and Just A Little Bit and the second title became a huge global hit including in America - so it was not a failure.

It can also be a great TV experience.

And I don't agree with the political voting theory - a great song with a great performance will get votes from everyone. As we did with Katrina.
 
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#28375
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
JK2006 wrote:

And I don't agree with the political voting theory - a great song with a great performance will get votes from everyone. As we did with Katrina.


JK you're talking of 1997 when only 4 countries used the telephone voting system enabling Katrina to win and back then any country could win. Now it's impossible as 90% of countries vote the same way each time.

Look at these 10 examples.


in 2007 Belarus voted Russia 12 Ukraine 10 Armenia 8
in 2006 Belarus voted Russia 12 Ukraine 10 Armenia 8

in 2007 France voted Turkey 12 Armenia 10 Serbia 8
in 2006 France voted Turkey 12 Armenia 10 Finland 8

in 2007 Latvia voted Ukraine 12 Lithuania 10 Belarus 8
in 2006 Latvia voted Russia 12 Lithuania 10 Finland 8

in 2006 Moldova voted Romania 12 Russia 10 Ukraine 8
in 2007 Moldova voted Romania 12 Belarus 10 Russia 8

in 2006 Serbia voted Bosnia 12 Croatia 10 FYROM 8
in 2007 Serbia voted Hungary 12 FYROM 10 Bosnia 8

in 2006 Romania voted Moldova 12 Greece 10 Russia 8
in 2007 Romania voted Moldova 12 Greece 10 Hungary 8

in 2006 Armenia voted Russia 12 Ukraine 10 Greece 8
in 2007 Armenia voted Russia 12 Belarus 10 Greece 8

in 2006 Bosnia voted Croatia 12 Turkey 10 FYROM 8
in 2007 Bosnia voted Serbia 12 Turkey 10 FYROM 8

in 2006 Ukraine voted Russia 12 Bosnia 10 Armenia 8
in 2007 Ukraine voted Belarus 12 Russia 10 Armenia 8

in 2006 Holland voted Turkey 12 Armenia 10 Bosnia 8
in 2007 Holland voted Turkey 12 Armenia 10 Serbia 8


Only differences being Hungary, Serbia and Belarus were not in the 2006 Final, Croatia not in the 2007 final

Look out for how those 10 countries above all vote this year and it will be the same, depending on who reaches the final. Bear in mind all 45 countries will still vote so if only Serbia reach the final from the Balkans they will get 12 from every other Balkan nation, same goes for Russia. If Belarus, Poland and the three Baltic countries don't qualify for the final, Russia have a guaranteed 60 points already.

How can any country which is not in the Balkans, Baltic, Scandinavia or have widespread diaspora compete with that ?

The contest that you saved JK has been destroyed.
 
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#28377
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Sadly Mike the only way I could prove you wrong would be for me to take charge of another no hoper country and get a win (Malta? Belgium? Netherlands? UK?) with a genuine hit (though Gina G proved it also needs a good performer - like Katrina was).

So get out to Belgrade this May and find me a territory!
 
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#28385
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
mikemacca wrote:

It's a foregone conclusion that the top 5 this year will be Russia, Ukraine, Serbia, Armenia and Sweden.(pick any order, but not Sweden as winners) Greece will finish between 6-10. UK will finish bottom 3.

You haven't put Croatia in your prediction, yet they have the same advantages you claim for Serbia. Armenia weren't in the top 5 last year, were they? And Sweden bombed terribly. So what you have done is take into account the quality of the songs, at least partially negating your whole argument.

Serbia was far and away the best song in last year's contest (subjective, I know) and Finland the year before got 12 points from the UK. The huge Finnish diaspora in Britain hides itself away very effectively obviously.

And of course UK will be bottom 3. Because it's crap.

Of course a country from outside the Baltics, Balkans or former Soviet area can and at some point will win the contest again.

Can you seriously give me an example of any song from UK, Ireland, France, Germany etc which has even been close to deserving a win in the past few years?

I'm not denying an element of neighbourly/diaspora voting and in a close contest some countries have an advantage. A great song (as long as it is instant enough for televoting) will always win, irrespective of which country it is representing.
 
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#28386
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Right on Anthony!

By the way, sorry about Derby.
 
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#28387
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Thanks, JK! Derby's demise was only a matter of time. I was there at Pride Park today, loyal till the end.

I think Derby went down because we don't have enough neighbours in the Premier League, and that big diaspora of Man Utd fans all over the country!
 
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#28390
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Anthony wrote:

You haven't put Croatia in your prediction, yet they have the same advantages you claim for Serbia. Armenia weren't in the top 5 last year, were they? And Sweden bombed terribly. So what you have done is take into account the quality of the songs, at least partially negating your whole argument.



Croatia do not have the diaspora Serbia do in Switzerland, Austria and Germany and throughout the whole of ex Yugoslavia.Look at any census of any of the Balkans in the last 6 years and you'll see what I mean. The Croatians are not as scattered throughout the regions, unlike the Serbs. Even if they don't reach the final however they will still get high marks from the other ex-Yugoslav countries.

Armenia weren't in the top 5 last year but finished not far away with huge diaspora votes and they've learned how to get more as you'll find out this year.
Would you like to wager with me that they and Turkey won't get 12 and 10 from France this year?

Sweden will not win but if they put in a typical Scandinavian schlager song, they finish between 4-7 thanks largely to Scandinavian and the west Baltic votes, but still a mile away from winning.

The voting of the last 2 years does not lie. I have been present at the contest and I've seen with my own eyes how the delegations are getting each others votes. Georgia seemed to master it very quickly last year with the Belgian delegation and believed they would vote for them, hence giving them 12 points in the semi final when nobody else gave them anything.

What is blatantly clear by the 10 examples I gave you (and I could give you 25) is that these votes are votes for countries and have no relevance on the quality of the song.Watch how those 10 countries vote this year.

Serbia may have had the best song last year but had it been representing Netherlands it would have finished no higher than 8th, of that you can be sure because Montenegro, Bosnia, Croatia, FYROM, Albania, Slovenia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova etc have already allocated their points and Netherlands won't get anything from them.
What is fact is if you remove the voting of Bosnia, Croatia, FYROM, Slovenia, Montenegro, Switzerland and Austria last year then Serbia would have finished 3rd, best song or not.

Do you really believe Austria and Switzerland just happen to have put Serbia as their 12 points every time they have entered because of the song quality ? Even when Serbia entered a very dodgy boy band they still finished high with the same 12 points from Austria, Switzerland, Croatia etc, but very little from anyone else.

I did not include the UK as having a diaspora vote so not sure why you made the comment about voting for Finland in 2006. The Uk do not have a diaspora that enters Eurovision, hence the 12 to Finland in 2006 and the zero to Serbia last year so our 12 can go anywhere. If Pakistan entered you could probably guarantee the 12 would go to them. Of course there are a few countries who don't vote the same and they will include UK and Malta

You can kid yourself all you like that it is in no way political and that the songs all get the position they deserve. You don't need to argue. Just wait for the results of Eurovision this year. It's gone beyond ridiculous and by denying it exists you'll just allow it to continue into the farce it has become.


We'll see who is "right on" at the end of May and JK I'll be bothering Malta again as they so want to win and really do need your expert help. You pick the song and I'll scatter some Maltesers across the whole of Europe. (No need to be sorry about Derby. It's cruel to watch someone suffer and at least they're out of their misery now.)
 
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#28404
Re:Eurovision - my decision 17 Years, 3 Months ago  
Agree with you about Derby, Mike. We'll be back soon though (I hope)

I didn't rubbish all your points. I have been present at 12 of the last 13 contests so know a bit about it too. The neighbourly voting is more down to cultural similarities and usually a famous singer in Serbia is also famous in Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia etc. If Robbie Williams represented Serbia, where would UK's 12 points go? People just phone in and vote for what they genuinely believe is their favourite, and minds are subjective and influenced by many factors. I made the point about UK's 12 to Finland to illustrate the song had universal appeal. It won by a huge margin, didn't need Scandinavia's help, and beat Dima Bilan, despite Russia having far more neighbours. If you only include the votes from "old Europe", Serbia would still have won last year despite zero from the UK.

I will not be wagering against any of your predictions, as I agree with them largely, but because they are the best songs. Armenia will do better than it did last year because it ticks all the boxes in order to pick up points from all over Europe.

The diaspora vote does have an effect, I know, but nothing can be done about this. It evens itself out to a large extent. If a song is good enough, everyone will vote for it.

I am surprised at your belief that the delegations get votes from each other. I think this may have happened in the days of juries, but now, all the televotes are routed to a central call centre in Germany. It is transparent and pretty unriggable, I'd imagine
 
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