Well, I've put my money on... Jade and the UK.
I think it may surprise us.

I hope so. I'm not crazy for her or the song or the BBC way of getting an entry (I thought my method, go for a hit, was better and it did win 12 years ago) but I like Andrew (we've been friends since the early 60s) and I'm keeping fingers crossed that the late placing will swing it for us.

I must confess that I too relented several days ago, and had a bet on UK. It became impossible to ignore the vibe here in Moscow, which has become almost a tidal wave of feeling. Even so, all logic and my lifetime's knowledge of Eurovison still tell me we'll do well to make the top ten. It is not only the late draw which favours ALW, but the songs around it make the song the only ballad in the last ten. On top of that, ALW is a winner, and his Midas touch may just mean that all the Eurovision rules are broken this year.

The baking heat we were treated to last week has disappeared into a distant memory. Wind, hail and torrential rain is the order of the day now, and I hear snow is a possibility for tomorrow.

It's high time I went into the arena to check out the first dress rehearsal of the final, and get a feel for the contest, it being my first chance to hear the songs in performance order. It is one of the weakest contests in years, yet perhaps one of the most interesting.

Of all the songs I've heard so far, the Montenegro was my favourite, but I don't think it made the final. Shame. The UK song does nothing for me, but it would be nice to see us win again.

The show has now finished, and I have to say it doesn't come out in the wash too badly, the wheat having been sorted from the chaff in the semis. There were some performances of note. Patricia Kaas for France was flawless and magnificent. The Israeli singers, despite lacking much of a song, are a very solid and professional act. Iceland came across well too, and I expect Bosnia to pick up votes outside of its neighbourhood. Jade put in another fine performance, yet I feel she has more to offer on the big night. ALW was there at the piano for the first time, and Dita von Teese made her first appearance for Germany, showing a little more of her charms than she ought to have! There were problems setting up the stage for UK, which need to be addressed urgently.

The opening to the show is spectacular, and Dima Bilan makes the biggest entrance onto a stage you will ever see. I missed the interval act, because of the big UK press conference, but have been informed that it is very strange and difficult to define.

The UK press conference was the best attended of the fortnight, as would be expected, with the presence of ALW, Diane Warren, and Graham Norton. There were even some real journalists there, some of whose names I actually recognised. There's a Eurovision novelty for you. It was interesting to attend, but nothing was revealed that we didn't already know, other than the fact that Wogan phoned Norton and advised him to resist taking a drink before the fifth song. Very wise, though did he always follow his own advice?

It is really tough to predict the outcome of this year's contest, largely because of the new voting system with 50% professional jury input. With televoting, the likes of Greece, Turkey, Ukraine and Azerbaijan would be battling it out, but they are all circuses, and it is hard to imagine the juries being impressed. They will give high marks to France and UK, but the televoters will not. Norway will attract votes from both, but possibly not enough. For this reason, I have cut back massively on by usually hefty betting, and will have to wait till next year to strike it rich, once I have assessed the impact of the new arrangements. It could be one of the few years where the winner comes right out of the left field and surprises everyone.

As a final aside, those on here in the music profession may want to take a look at Sakis of Greece. At no point leading up to this contest did he ever sing his song live. I may be mistaken, but I believe he hardly sings a line here. It is all done by his backing singer.

I shall leave now, with my Eurovision thinking cap glued to my head, before I return with some predictions.

Great blog Anthony.

I too am beginning to wonder if ALW's massive publicity campaign has paid off and we'll find out fairly soon. It's even the 3rd favourite with the bookies now.

But my money's still on Ukraine. £50 at 66/1 plus an each way £50 so I should get some money back to waste on rare JK records on Ebay !

I have loved your blogs anthony....

I have bought Patricia Kaas's latest album and if justice be done she will win....

however

I don't like the UK's entry but wish it well as it is at least an effort at professionalism.

I don't buy into all this Eastern European bloc voting stuff, after all Russia won last year because the song was a hit internationally before the contest.

I would like Norway to win, the song's good but I like the singer

david wrote:


I don't buy into all this Eastern European bloc voting stuff, after all Russia won last year because the song was a hit internationally before the contest.


David, check the final scoreboard out last year and note where the 12s came from

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2008

I think cultural similarity helps if there is no real populist hit in the contest.

If there's a genuine cross over hit (I specialised in those), it will win, if the performance is strong and as long as it's pretty instant (one 3 minute play).

I just checked the table. I hadn't realised that the UK gave Russia zero last year, although I'm not surprised. I thought the song was dull, but not as dull as the Belarus winner the year before.

The votes usually indicate "no real hit in the contest" - just check our votes in 1997, when Katrina got 12 points from almost everyone.

A genuine hit entry sweeps all prejudice aside; much like life really.

JK2006 wrote:
The votes usually indicate "no real hit in the contest" - just check our votes in 1997, when Katrina got 12 points from almost everyone.

A genuine hit entry sweeps all prejudice aside; much like life really.


A comparison :

Katrina managed 10 maximum 12s out of 24 juries and they came from as far apart as Russia Croatia Switzerland and Sweden. She also scored from every jury with only 4 countries not placing her in the top 4

Dima got 7 maximum 12s out of 43 juries. They came from Armenia, Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine and Israel (population of 45% Russian origin). The 10s came from Romania Moldova and Hungary. Not a single western European or Scandinavian country placed him in the top 3 and 6 scored him zero.

So 9 ex Soviet countries + Israel (Full of Russians) gave Russia their best marks

Interesting - I see the odds on Jade have dropped to 10-1.

I got 16-1 when I bet on the UK three days ago.

And I do know bookies read the Tipsheet avidly...

mikemacca wrote:
[quote]JK2006 wrote:

So 9 ex Soviet countries + Israel (Full of Russians) gave Russia their best marks

Mike, "ex-Soviet" countries have every reason to hate Russia, the clue is in the name you use- "ex-Soviet". I lived in Hungary and believe me many Hungarians hold a great deal of resentment towards the Russians for what they did to them during 40+ years.

I would argue that Dima Bilan's success had as much to do with the fact that Dima Bilan is a big star in many of those countries, and the fact that the song had already been a big hit in many of those countries. Surely that could be a deciding factor?

I don't buy the fact that the Hungarians at least would rush out to vote for their ex-oppressor for old times' sake.

Regional tastes may also have something to do with it.

I see there is a more balanced mix of countries this time, so this may refect in the voting paterns. As a Jazz freak I'll probably favour Germany, but I also like the songs from Lithuania, France and Norway. The UK entry doen't grab me at all, but since I can't vote for it my opinion of it doesn't really matter.

This could be my last post from Moscow. As usual, it has been a fortnight of insanity and mayhem, with a very occasional decent song thrown in for good measure, but I wouldn't have missed it for the world.

I will take back with me amazing memories of Moscow; the friendly but proud people, the wonderful Metro stations all with their unique individual artistic style, the cleanliness of the streets, and the stunningly beautiful architecture...I could go on and on. There are some bad memories too; the sheer exhaustion I have felt traipsing miles to get from place to place and my occasionally fragile health over the last few days. Still, it has been some experience.

The hospitality of the Russians as far as Eurovision goes has been the best for years with non-stop free drinks at the Europarties, although that has mainly been water and diet Coke for me over the last few days.

We did a few touristy things today. We queued for ages to see Lenin's tomb. I can confirm he is definitely dead. We then visited an amazing sprawling market, where you can spend hours. Fascinating.

As for tonight's contest, I am totally clueless. This is a major transitional phase for Eurovision with the new voting, but I guess I should follow my own tradition and throw my predictions into the hat. I'll go with Norway first (could crash though) followed by France, Bosnia, Ukraine and Greece. Iceland is a definite dark horse.

Like you, Mike, I do think ALW may have bought a UK win, but I'm stubborn and not changing my mind now!

And finally thanks, JK, for allowing me to bombard your site with posts for the last fortnight, and for allowing me to use your name to facilitate that precious pass around my neck! I may return after the contest, otherwise when back in the UK.

We'd appreciate an aftermath, Ant, but whenever fits the schedule.

In many ways I wish I'd come.

my prediction for tonight (personal bias aside):

1. UK
2. Norway
3. Greece
4. Ukraine
5. France

I don't want the UK to win as it's a sub-standard song but the juries will succomb to the wow factor of Lord LW I fear.....