www.guardian.co.uk/books/booksblog/2012/...ovels-where-to-start

Now here is my vision of the future. The end or evolution of labels as most releases will be self financed and self published. Off the back of this I see a rise in independent a&r consultants similar to how JK advised Alex Day. Some out of love and passion for music, most for a fee. The majors will launch their own version once they realise the advantages thereof. It will be a pro indie world as we are now starting those the problems of the likes of X-Factor (unable to maintain huge profits from music), a streamlining of label structure as more will be run by 2 or 3 staff, a change in the role of managers as artists grow up and control more of their music with the consultant doing deals artists can't do on their own. Also a&r will revert back to a music driven model rather than profit driven. Your thoughts folks.

Rather as I did with UK Records years ago (check out the 1972 Top 5 where we had 2 in the top 5 with a staff of 5).

Interesting - though others like Chris Blackwell (Brit Records - long before Island) had not really succeeded, we did at UK in the early days, setting the model for people like Mickie Most (RAK), Branson (Virgin) and others...

The creative hub was tiny and we plugged into the mainstream for distribution etc...

I think it will go back to that, the key difference being that (as we did at UK) promotion and marketing remained with us in the tiny hub. And I suspect management will become a part of the mini-label duties - again, with the "major label" machine taking care of the admin and other stuff.

The big money will come from the high profile obtained by success. Not just from music sales.

Biggest indie-label ever, 'Island' launched in '59.

Blackwell was also location-scout for 1st J.B. flick 1962 "Dr No". The only Bond film with no Hit-song.

Theatre musician/writer/arranger Monty Norman was invited to compose the soundtrack when co-prod Albert Broccoli liked his earlier 1950s musicals, but Monty only agreed after co-prod Harry Saltzman let him travel with the crew to Jamaica to meet local musicians. Where iconic Island Records boss Chris Blackwell also employed as the film location-scout introduced him to Byron Lee & the Dragonaires who appear in the film and perform most of the music on the later soundtrack album.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Records

JK's real tasty geezer 'Johnny Reggae' would lurve this one, our fave J.B. non-flick macho track, Atlantic ’66 Soul heavy-trio, wailin’ groovin’ Rex Garvin & The Mighty Cravers,
“Sock It To 'Em JB” [whup it on ‘em one-time…]

Island was not really a UK Indie label in the early 60s. In fact, Chris Blackwell put Millie on Fontana for My Boy Lollipop because Island were not a "real" label. Chris then formed Brit Records with Chris Peers. Great product but, again, not successful. It was my UK Records that really cracked it commercially. At least, that's how I remember it.

I think that maybe money will be removed from the equation altogether, as more and more artists make their self-recorded material available for free on the Soundcloud and MySpace-style portals, or downloadable via ITunes or Amazon. If they want some PRS income, they can always join MCPS/PRS without already having a publishing deal. Lets face it, what do music publishers do anyway, apart from taking 50% of songwriters' and composers' royalties?

Incidentally, the same thing is starting to happen with digital book publishing, If you are lucky enough to own a Kindle, a browse through the offerings of the Kindle Bookstore will confirm this. In a lot of cases, because they're are no publishers or distributors involved, the selling prices can be dramatically cut.

"as most releases will be self financed and self published"

Agree. But most / almost all of the successful releases will be connected (in one way or the other) to UMG/SONY/WMG.

"The majors will launch their own version [of independent A&R] once they realise the advantages thereof"

The major labels have used (independent) labels, managers, agents, music publishers, and external A&R-men for decades as talent scouts. In the 60s there was no infrastructure in Britan to be succesful as an independent: Chris Blackwell (Island), Andrew Loog Oldham (Immediate), Lionel Bart (Gimmick), David Platz (Fly), Dick James (DJM), Girogio Gomelski (Marmelade), Phil Solomon (Major Minor) etc.
had to go through the majors. This changed in the 70s when JK used Decca/PolyGram. But even Island and Virgin were sold eventually.

One of the major (pun indented) reasons for the many problems the majors had to deal with since the 90s was caused by the integration of the "independent" sector: By buying everyone the (then) big six destroyed the infrastructure they dependent on for A&R, market research etc.

"Also a&r will revert back to a music driven model rather than profit driven"
This points to another problem: The state of (the evolution of) music. Why hasn't there be a new trend/style in the last 20 years? see Simon Reynolds' Retromania

"what do music publishers do anyway, apart from taking 50% of songwriters' and composers' royalties? "

Come on JK, let's have your answer to that one

50-50? who's the mug? 70-30 or even 80-20 is realistic unless you are signing to a cowboy outfit in which case you deserve it