CoronaVirus
Update
From Day One I suspected this was NOT a plague but just another form of Flu. Put it this way; Covid19 is a CoronaVirus; so, I gather is a cold or flu. I suspect, too, it doesn’t KILL very many but it prompts other illnesses to become lethal. So somebody with tired lungs, especially the elderly or smokers, and frail immune system, such as diabetics, or the obese, can catch it and it will develop into pneumonia or other sometimes lethal conditions.

But, from watching Wuhan, it appeared to me it was different from the media inflated plague being sold by papers, TV, radio, social media.

Avoid panic, I reckoned; find out the reality; act accordingly. A total lockdown if needed. More likely, far increased concentration on the vulnerable (care homes, hospitals, hospices, refugee camps, prisons) and better treatment of the seriously affected (ventilators etc).

Indeed, since I was in two vulnerable categories, I bought two things - a really good, tight, expensive face mask and several canisters of oxygen for emergencies.

Most of my friends disagreed with me. This was a plague. One agreed with that strange man who predicts doom every time there’s a scare (MERS, SARS) that Covid19 would kill 50 million.

A few commentators (Peter Hitchens; Matthew Parris) agreed with me; this should not be allowed to become a PanicDemic. But four countries DID do that (correctly if the media coverage was right). Italy; Spain; France and the UK.

Now, as the first wave of the epidemic dies away, we see 97% of countries have less than 1000 deaths. A few more with huge populations (USA, Brazil, Russia, China) have many deaths but, in ratio, not a lot. Only 4 countries have had over 25,000 deaths.

It is clear that for the vast majority (95%) of those that catch it, Covid19 is a trivial virus. For the remaining 5% it can be very serious and for about 1% lethal.

Hopefully this will make the next inevitable wave (like Flu and probably next winter) able to be treated in a far wiser way. Concentration on total lockdown for hot spots (high density towns). Immediate treatment for those badly affected (ventilators, oxygen, lying on front). And then there should be a vaccine.

We didn’t panic in 2018 when 50,000 died in 3 months due to the wrong Flu vaccine in England & Wales. Like Covid19, many deaths were from connected, but not caused by, Flu. We must not panic when Wave 2 of Covid19 hits later this year. And we must NOT panic when a new virus (Covid20?) hits.

The problem is, we don't know how many people have had coronavirus and then recovered. There was a BBC report a while back which suggested only 1 in 400 of us have actually had it. If you take the figures published on the Worldometers website, the total number of deaths in the U.K. expressed as a percentage of known COVID-19 cases, we get a fatality rate of 14%. If you then factor in the social distancing and lockdown measures, it seems very likely that the vast majority of us haven't been exposed to the virus yet.

Please tell us where you get your figures from? You always say with certainty that it's only 5% of us who become very ill with the virus, and then about 1% who go on to die. Without all the draconian measures we have had to observe, if the fatality rate is 1% and everybody caught the virus, there would probably be a total death rate of around 650,000; this would be unacceptable to even the most heartless dictator. Would that be palatable to a foot stamping butterfly such as yourself?

How many have had Covid19? We have absolutely no idea. We are told the vast majority have no or mild symptoms. They have never been tested.
You assume the lockdown kept down the death rate. Why? South Korea had no lockdown. 250 deaths. Greece DID lockdown. 172 deaths.
However many end up dead in the UK it will be a small quantity, comparable with a bad season of Flu or annual cancer deaths or road accidents or strokes.
I repeat: concentrated priorities to protect & treat the vulnerable makes more sense to me than trying to stop the spread.
Especially when a total lockdown kills the economy, damages society and leads to thousands of deaths from unrelated ills that don't attend hospital.

Dr Strangelove wrote:
The problem is, we don't know how many people have had coronavirus and then recovered. There was a BBC report a while back which suggested only 1 in 400 of us have actually had it. If you take the figures published on the Worldometers website, the total number of deaths in the U.K. expressed as a percentage of known COVID-19 cases, we get a fatality rate of 14%. If you then factor in the social distancing and lockdown measures, it seems very likely that the vast majority of us haven't been exposed to the virus yet.

Please tell us where you get your figures from? You always say with certainty that it's only 5% of us who become very ill with the virus, and then about 1% who go on to die. Without all the draconian measures we have had to observe, if the fatality rate is 1% and everybody caught the virus, there would probably be a total death rate of around 650,000; this would be unacceptable to even the most heartless dictator. Would that be palatable to a foot stamping butterfly such as yourself?

Just to highlight your reading of the media is now "out of date". As I noted, before it was corrected, that the 1 in 400 was a sample at a point in time. Now it is stated that is the case and does not account for people now with antibodies etc. Later tests and re looking at the results are highlighting that it is about 20 % that have had some form of Covid 19 I am not bothering to go back to articles as testing and analysis as reported in the media is quite abysmal. It wouldn't surprise me if a large percentage of UK people are now immune. No source just think it is possible

I admire your tenacity on this subject JK but it doesn't matter how many times logic and perspective is repeated it seems millions will never be able to remove the spectacles of fear they wear about this subject thanks to Ferguson's bollocks predictions (he has made a career of that) and the power of the media.

Yes there is a risk and it just now nerds to be managed sensibly.

Need to add that the number of Covid 19 cases reported are just that. "The cases reported". I am reasonably certain I had Covid 19 and I never reported it. Others have had such a mild case they never even noticed and some are picked up on a routine test somewhere maybe quarantine or a random sample. A sample test of people of + Covid 19 and an antibody test may give an indication. But one doctor (some consider unreliable) noted some have developed immunity but will not show up on an antibody test. And then how do we know the testing is reliable.

So if the assumed 14% of reported cases are fatal then if the non reported cases are 10 X the reported cases then that would make it 1.4% I guess. But it could be 100 X who's to say.

My antibody test was negative; so was my brother's (he almost died with double pneumonia in January). But doctors say that doesn't mean we never had it; just that we don't have antibodies (I suspect I didn't need them - my mild symptoms were beaten by paracetamol).