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TOPIC: Irish Budget
#202204
middlemas

Irish Budget 2 Weeks ago  
A draconian budget will be announced today. The largest in the 100 year history of the State, and the first for the new coalition government.

With Covid costing this small country €50 billion, costs are expected to spiral, with a no-deal Brexit factored in together with no Covid vaccine next year.

It'll be interesting to see how our nearest neighbour deals with the crisis. Bearing in mind that our situation is likely to be sorted by higher taxation and austerity.
 
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#202207
Wyot

Re:Irish Budget 2 Weeks ago  
Yes will be interesting but options are so limited.






Income tax will be hugely down because lockdown measures are about to create mass unemployment. Corporation tax? Again lockdown economic disaster means v limited, even if Tories had the appetite.

Austerity from a public services system that will face unprecedented pressures because of lockdown: huge increase in benefits bills, huge pressures on NPS from backlogs and the Criminal Justice system, which has already pretty much ground to a halt, housing as thousands lose their homes.

So, cut or freeze public sector pay (MPs cunningly got there 3k rise in last week) - I predict mass strikes like we have never seen after all they have been forced to give through the lockdown decision.

Still, I am sure our clever Chancellor can make it sound OK short term, delaying the fact that the lockdown bail outs are unpayable. Ever.
 
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#202209
middlemas

Re:Irish Budget 2 Weeks ago  
UK tax will rise (IMO), with a greater alignment of CGT rates with income tax rates. This would be relatively acceptable, as few taxpayers pay CGT. Less than 300,000 in 2017/8.


Income tax will go up too; a penny of extra income tax on each pound earned can raise £5 billion a year.


With regard to VAT, a recently leaked Treasury commented that a rise would 'raise fiscally significant amounts'.


On National Insurance, all will be asked to pay equally in future. Now self-employed people earning up to £50,000pa pay NI of 9%; workers, earning the same pay, pay 12%.


Finally, a surcharge to use the NHS or social care services, is being considered - the leaked Treasury paper says. Although the proposed methodology is unknown/undetermined.
 
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#202211
Wyot

Re:Irish Budget 2 Weeks ago  
Does sound like you know more about this sort of thing than me so ta.

But I do struggle to see how revenue from income tax/NI can be predicted when perhaps several million will not have jobs soon...

Also VAT - fine, but people need to have something to spend....
 
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#202219
middlemas

Re:Irish Budget 2 Weeks ago  
Unemployment is at the highest level for three years, and will undoubtedly grow further.

This, as you say, will significantly reduce income. And increase our borrowing to more than the current £2T.

Interest on this level of debt will rapidly equate to the cost of funding a second NHS.

As more than £100 billion will be required to pay the Interest, before we do anything.

The only alternative, to reducing the debt, is to continue borrowing!
 
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